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Dunkerque vs Guingamp — Ligue 2 2018

Dunkerque
Dunkerque
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guingamp
Guingamp
M. Essimi 90+7'
A. Ba 82'
G. Yassine 69'
Y. Bammou 90+6' (OG)
4/7/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 29Stade Marcel-Tribut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Dunkerque37%
×Draw28%
Guingamp35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunkerque
1.21
Guingamp
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 129 away

creates per match

Dunkerque
1.13
Guingamp
1.25

allows per match

Dunkerque
1.11
Guingamp
1.29

finishing

Dunkerque+0.00on par
Guingamp+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunkerque ↓

Guingamp →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dunkerque or draw
65%
Dunkerque or Guingamp
72%
Draw or Guingamp
63%

Winning margin

Dunkerque wins by 2+
16%
Guingamp wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dunkerque 1+ goals
70%
Dunkerque 2+ goals
34%
Dunkerque 3+ goals
12%
Guingamp 1+ goals
69%
Guingamp 2+ goals
33%
Guingamp 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dunkerque (draw refunded)
51%
Guingamp (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunkerque at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.11 · 92 matches

Guingamp away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunkerque attack 1.13 + Guingamp defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Guingamp attack 1.25 + Dunkerque defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dunkerque scores more
37%
level
28%
Guingamp scores more
35%

Dunkerque at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dunkerque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
A. BaDunkerqueDunkerque · M
8.3

Match Events

14'
Théo Le Bris
41'
Alec Georgen
47'
R. Ghrieb← A. Hemia
51'
Lenny Vallier
64'
A. Ba← Muhannad Al Saad
69'
G. Yassine↳ Abner
75'
Donatien Gomis
75'
A. Sagna← T. Le Bris
75'
S. Guendouz← H. Picard
81'
A. Pitu← Diogo Queirós
81'
Y. Bammou← G. Yassine
82'
M. Riou← J. Siwe
82'
T. Luvambo← D. Louiserre
82'
A. Ba
87'
Severin Sabri GuendouzMissed penalty
88'
Abdoullah Ba
89'
M. Essimi← G. Courtet
90+6'
Y. BammouOwn goal
90+7'
M. Essimi↳ A. Ba

Possession

46%Dunkerque

Shots

12Dunkerque

Pass accuracy

49%Dunkerque

Statistics

DunkerqueGuingamp
Overview
46%Possession54%
12Total Shots7
2Corners4
15Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots7
6On Target3
1Off Target1
5Blocked3
10Inside Box4
2Outside Box3
Passing
46%Possession54%
404Total Passes471
321Accurate Passes392
79%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
2Offsides5

Match Recap: Dunkerque vs Guingamp

Dunkerque beat Guingamp 3-1 in Ligue 2 on April 7, 2025.

Goals: G. Yassine (69'), A. Ba (82'), Y. Bammou (90+6' o.g.), M. Essimi (90+7').

Guingamp controlled possession (54%) and registered 7 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stade Marcel-Tribut in Dunkerque.