Dunkerque 0–1 Grenoble: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Dunkerque

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Grenoble

Y. Diaby 89'

5/2/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 33Stade Marcel Tribut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Dunkerque40%

×Draw29%

Grenoble31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunkerqueExpected goals in this matchGrenoble

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.02

Dunkerque

1.21

Grenoble

1.02

Dunkerque creates 19% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 145 away

1.13

creates per match

0.94

1.11

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Dunkerque

1.13

Grenoble

0.94

allows per match

Dunkerque

1.11

Grenoble

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunkerque+0.00on par

Grenoble+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunkerque ↓

Grenoble →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dunkerque or draw

69%

Dunkerque or Grenoble

71%

Draw or Grenoble

60%

Winning margin

Dunkerque wins by 2+

17%

Grenoble wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dunkerque 1+ goals

70%

Dunkerque 2+ goals

34%

Dunkerque 3+ goals

12%

Grenoble 1+ goals

64%

Grenoble 2+ goals

27%

Grenoble 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dunkerque (draw refunded)

57%

Grenoble (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunkerque at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.11 · 92 matches

Grenoble away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.30 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunkerque attack 1.13 + Grenoble defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Grenoble attack 0.94 + Dunkerque defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dunkerque scores more

40%

level

29%

Grenoble scores more

31%

Dunkerque at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dunkerque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

M. Diop

Grenoble · G

9.2

Match Events

10'

E. Maurin← A. L. N'Gatta

21'

Baptiste Mouazan

31'

Zaid Seha

32'

A. Sekongo← A. Georgen

46'

53'

58'

68'

68'

S. Delos←

68'

S. Diba← L. Bernadou

74'

Allan Linguet

75'

L. Doucet← P. Diong

75'

M. Decherf← M. Makhloufi

88'

Mamadou Diop

89'

Y. Diaby↳ L. Mouyokolo

90+6'

O. Sangante← E. Bardeli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DunkerqueGrenoble

Overview

76%Possession24%

15Total Shots6

8Corners0

9Fouls7

Shots

15Total Shots6

6On Target2

7Off Target3

2Blocked1

8Inside Box3

7Outside Box3

Passing

76%Possession24%

720Total Passes231

669Accurate Passes167

93%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3