Dunkerque 2–1 Estac Troyes: Result & Stats

Dunkerque

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Estac Troyes

10/4/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade Marcel-Tribut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Dunkerque33%

×Draw29%

Estac Troyes37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunkerqueExpected goals in this matchEstac Troyes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.13

Dunkerque

1.05

Estac Troyes

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 105 away

1.13

creates per match

1.14

1.11

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Dunkerque

1.13

Estac Troyes

1.14

allows per match

Dunkerque

1.11

Estac Troyes

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunkerque+0.00on par

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunkerque ↓

Estac Troyes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dunkerque or draw

63%

Dunkerque or Estac Troyes

71%

Draw or Estac Troyes

67%

Winning margin

Dunkerque wins by 2+

13%

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dunkerque 1+ goals

65%

Dunkerque 2+ goals

28%

Dunkerque 3+ goals

9%

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

68%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

31%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dunkerque (draw refunded)

47%

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunkerque at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.11 · 92 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.98 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunkerque attack 1.13 + Estac Troyes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Estac Troyes attack 1.14 + Dunkerque defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dunkerque scores more

33%

level

29%

Estac Troyes scores more

37%

Estac Troyes at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff