Dunkerque 1–1 Cercle Brugge: Result & Stats

Dunkerque

1 – 1

Cercle Brugge

6/26/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dunkerque50%

×Draw23%

Cercle Brugge27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunkerqueExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.28

Dunkerque

1.80

Cercle Brugge

1.28

Dunkerque creates 41% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.50

creates per match

1.40

1.17

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Dunkerque

1.50

Cercle Brugge

1.40

allows per match

Dunkerque

1.17

Cercle Brugge

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunkerque+0.00on par

Cercle Brugge+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunkerque ↓

Cercle Brugge →

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dunkerque or draw

73%

Dunkerque or Cercle Brugge

77%

Draw or Cercle Brugge

50%

Winning margin

Dunkerque wins by 2+

27%

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dunkerque 1+ goals

83%

Dunkerque 2+ goals

54%

Dunkerque 3+ goals

27%

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

72%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

37%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dunkerque (draw refunded)

64%

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dunkerque at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dunkerque attack 1.50 + Cercle Brugge defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.80

Cercle Brugge attack 1.40 + Dunkerque defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dunkerque scores more

50%

level

23%

Cercle Brugge scores more

27%

Dunkerque at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dunkerque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff