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Dunkerque vs Bordeaux — Ligue 2 2018

Dunkerque
Dunkerque
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bordeaux
Bordeaux
12/19/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 19Stade Marcel-Tribut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Dunkerque39%
×Draw28%
Bordeaux33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunkerque
1.23
Bordeaux
1.11

Dunkerque creates 11% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 38 away

creates per match

Dunkerque
1.13
Bordeaux
1.11

allows per match

Dunkerque
1.11
Bordeaux
1.34

finishing

Dunkerque+0.00on par
Bordeaux+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunkerque ↓

Bordeaux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dunkerque or draw
67%
Dunkerque or Bordeaux
72%
Draw or Bordeaux
61%

Winning margin

Dunkerque wins by 2+
17%
Bordeaux wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dunkerque 1+ goals
71%
Dunkerque 2+ goals
35%
Dunkerque 3+ goals
13%
Bordeaux 1+ goals
67%
Bordeaux 2+ goals
30%
Bordeaux 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dunkerque (draw refunded)
54%
Bordeaux (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunkerque at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.11 · 92 matches

Bordeaux away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunkerque attack 1.13 + Bordeaux defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bordeaux attack 1.11 + Dunkerque defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dunkerque scores more
39%
level
28%
Bordeaux scores more
33%

Dunkerque at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dunkerque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunkerque vs Bordeaux

Bordeaux beat Dunkerque 2-0 in Ligue 2 on December 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Marcel-Tribut in Dunkerque.