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Dunkerque vs Bastia — Ligue 2 2018

Dunkerque
Dunkerque
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bastia
Bastia
2/20/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 24Stade Marcel Tribut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Dunkerque40%
×Draw28%
Bastia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunkerque
1.23
Bastia
1.07

Dunkerque creates 15% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 91 away

creates per match

Dunkerque
1.13
Bastia
1.03

allows per match

Dunkerque
1.11
Bastia
1.33

finishing

Dunkerque+0.00on par
Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunkerque ↓

Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dunkerque or draw
68%
Dunkerque or Bastia
72%
Draw or Bastia
60%

Winning margin

Dunkerque wins by 2+
17%
Bastia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dunkerque 1+ goals
71%
Dunkerque 2+ goals
35%
Dunkerque 3+ goals
13%
Bastia 1+ goals
66%
Bastia 2+ goals
29%
Bastia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dunkerque (draw refunded)
55%
Bastia (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunkerque at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.11 · 92 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunkerque attack 1.13 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bastia attack 1.03 + Dunkerque defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dunkerque scores more
40%
level
28%
Bastia scores more
32%

Dunkerque at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dunkerque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Dunkerque 1–1 Bastia

Dunkerque and Bastia drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on February 20, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Marcel Tribut in Dunkerque.