Dunkerque 1–0 Ajaccio: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Dunkerque

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ajaccio

11/25/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 14Stade Marcel-Tribut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Dunkerque41%

×Draw30%

Ajaccio29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunkerqueExpected goals in this matchAjaccio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.93

Dunkerque

1.17

Ajaccio

0.93

Dunkerque creates 26% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 107 away

1.13

creates per match

0.75

1.11

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Dunkerque

1.13

Ajaccio

0.75

allows per match

Dunkerque

1.11

Ajaccio

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunkerque+0.00on par

Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunkerque ↓

Ajaccio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Dunkerque or draw

71%

Dunkerque or Ajaccio

70%

Draw or Ajaccio

59%

Winning margin

Dunkerque wins by 2+

18%

Ajaccio wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dunkerque 1+ goals

69%

Dunkerque 2+ goals

33%

Dunkerque 3+ goals

11%

Ajaccio 1+ goals

61%

Ajaccio 2+ goals

24%

Ajaccio 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dunkerque (draw refunded)

59%

Ajaccio (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunkerque at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.11 · 92 matches

Ajaccio away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.21 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunkerque attack 1.13 + Ajaccio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ajaccio attack 0.75 + Dunkerque defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dunkerque scores more

41%

level

30%

Ajaccio scores more

29%

Dunkerque at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dunkerque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff