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Dungannon Swifts vs Warrenpoint Town — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
J. Moore 64'
K. Dillon 62', 6'
M. Lusty 54'
A. Glenny 23'
7/11/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stangmore Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dungannon Swifts96%
×Draw4%
Warrenpoint Town1%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dungannon Swifts
4.00
Warrenpoint Town
0.25

Dungannon Swifts creates 1500% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Dungannon Swifts
4.00
Warrenpoint Town
0.25

allows per match

Dungannon Swifts
0.25
Warrenpoint Town
4.00

finishing

Dungannon Swifts+0.00on par
Warrenpoint Town+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%No
  • No78
  • Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dungannon Swifts ↓

Warrenpoint Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–12%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–13%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–017%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–017%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (17%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Dungannon Swifts or draw
99%
Dungannon Swifts or Warrenpoint Town
96%
Draw or Warrenpoint Town
4%

Winning margin

Dungannon Swifts wins by 2+
85%
Warrenpoint Town wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Dungannon Swifts 1+ goals
98%
Dungannon Swifts 2+ goals
90%
Dungannon Swifts 3+ goals
73%
Warrenpoint Town 1+ goals
22%
Warrenpoint Town 2+ goals
3%
Warrenpoint Town 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Dungannon Swifts (draw refunded)
99%
Warrenpoint Town (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dungannon Swifts at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Warrenpoint Town away — creates 0.25, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dungannon Swifts attack 4.00 + Warrenpoint Town defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 4.00

Warrenpoint Town attack 0.25 + Dungannon Swifts defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 96%?"

Dungannon Swifts scores more
96%
level
4%
Warrenpoint Town scores more
1%

Dungannon Swifts at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "Dungannon Swifts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
K. Dillon
23'
A. Glenny
54'
M. Lusty
62'
K. Dillon
64'
J. Moore

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dungannon Swifts vs Warrenpoint Town

Dungannon Swifts beat Warrenpoint Town 5-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2023.

Goals: K. Dillon (6', 62'), A. Glenny (23'), M. Lusty (54'), J. Moore (64').

The match was played at Stangmore Park in Dungannon.