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Dunfermline vs Livingston — League #180 2026

Dunfermline
Dunfermline
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Livingston
Livingston
4/2/2025League #180League #180 · Round 30KDM Group East End Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dunfermline61%
×Draw25%
Livingston15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunfermline
1.59
Livingston
0.63

Dunfermline creates 152% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

creates per match

Dunfermline
1.93
Livingston
0.75

allows per match

Dunfermline
0.50
Livingston
1.25

finishing

Dunfermline+0.00on par
Livingston+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunfermline ↓

Livingston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dunfermline or draw
85%
Dunfermline or Livingston
75%
Draw or Livingston
39%

Winning margin

Dunfermline wins by 2+
33%
Livingston wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dunfermline 1+ goals
80%
Dunfermline 2+ goals
47%
Dunfermline 3+ goals
21%
Livingston 1+ goals
47%
Livingston 2+ goals
13%
Livingston 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Dunfermline (draw refunded)
81%
Livingston (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunfermline at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Livingston away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunfermline attack 1.93 + Livingston defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.59

Livingston attack 0.75 + Dunfermline defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dunfermline scores more
61%
level
25%
Livingston scores more
15%

Dunfermline at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunfermline vs Livingston

Dunfermline beat Livingston 1-0 in League #180 on April 2, 2025.

The match was played at KDM Group East End Park in Dunfermline.