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Dunfermline vs Kilmarnock — League Cup 2018

Dunfermline
Dunfermline
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
7/22/2023League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 4KDM Group East End Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dunfermline49%
×Draw23%
Kilmarnock28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunfermline
1.84
Kilmarnock
1.34

Dunfermline creates 37% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dunfermline
2.82
Kilmarnock
1.86

allows per match

Dunfermline
0.82
Kilmarnock
0.86

finishing

Dunfermline+0.00on par
Kilmarnock+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunfermline ↓

Kilmarnock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dunfermline or draw
72%
Dunfermline or Kilmarnock
77%
Draw or Kilmarnock
51%

Winning margin

Dunfermline wins by 2+
27%
Kilmarnock wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dunfermline 1+ goals
84%
Dunfermline 2+ goals
55%
Dunfermline 3+ goals
28%
Kilmarnock 1+ goals
74%
Kilmarnock 2+ goals
39%
Kilmarnock 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dunfermline (draw refunded)
64%
Kilmarnock (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunfermline at home — creates 2.82, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Kilmarnock away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunfermline attack 2.82 + Kilmarnock defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.84

Kilmarnock attack 1.86 + Dunfermline defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dunfermline scores more
49%
level
23%
Kilmarnock scores more
28%

Dunfermline at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunfermline vs Kilmarnock

Kilmarnock beat Dunfermline 2-0 in League Cup on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at KDM Group East End Park in Dunfermline.