Dunfermline 0–2 Forfar Athletic: Result & Stats

Dunfermline

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Forfar Athletic

M. Whatley 52'

R. McLean 28'

7/16/2024

League Cup · Group Stage - 3KDM Group East End Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dunfermline74%

×Draw16%

Forfar Athletic10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunfermlineExpected goals in this matchForfar Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

0.84

Dunfermline

2.54

Forfar Athletic

0.84

Dunfermline creates 202% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

2.82

creates per match

0.87

0.82

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Dunfermline

2.82

Forfar Athletic

0.87

allows per match

Dunfermline

0.82

Forfar Athletic

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunfermline+0.00on par

Forfar Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunfermline ↓

Forfar Athletic →

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–09%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Dunfermline or draw

90%

Dunfermline or Forfar Athletic

84%

Draw or Forfar Athletic

26%

Winning margin

Dunfermline wins by 2+

52%

Forfar Athletic wins by 2+

Team goals

Dunfermline 1+ goals

92%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

72%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

46%

Forfar Athletic 1+ goals

57%

Forfar Athletic 2+ goals

21%

Forfar Athletic 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

88%

Forfar Athletic (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dunfermline at home — creates 2.82, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Forfar Athletic away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dunfermline attack 2.82 + Forfar Athletic defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.54

Forfar Athletic attack 0.87 + Dunfermline defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 74%?"

Dunfermline scores more

74%

level

16%

Forfar Athletic scores more

10%

Dunfermline at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

B. Malcolm

28'

R. McLean

52'

M. Whatley↳ R. McLean

67'

A. Tod← L. McCann

67'

J. Chalmers← C. Hamilton

67'

M. O'Halloran← E. Otoo

68'

J. Skelly← R. MacLean

74'

78'

89'

90'

Dunfermline

Forfar

⚽

▼

⚽A

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. McPake

67'▲A. Tod←▼L. McCann

67'▲J. Chalmers←▼C. Hamilton

67'▲M. O'Halloran←▼E. Otoo

Dunfermline substitutes

26Tod8Chalmers23O'Halloran30Rowe25Young27Hoggan28McLeod

Manager: R. McKinnon

68'▲J. Skelly←▼R. MacLean

78'▲S. Reekie←▼N. Cannon

Forfar Athletic substitutes

9Skelly15Reekie11Inglis18Paris

Match Recap: Dunfermline vs Forfar Athletic

Forfar Athletic beat Dunfermline 2-0 in League Cup on July 16, 2024.

Goals: R. McLean (28'), M. Whatley (52').

The match was played at KDM Group East End Park in Dunfermline.

Dunfermline vs Forfar Athletic — League Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dunfermline vs Forfar Athletic