Dunfermline 4–0 Dumbarton: Result & Stats

Dunfermline

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Dumbarton

R. Williamson 65'

F. Aird 45'

K. Higginbotham 25', 18'

4/28/2018

League #180 · Round 36East End Park (Dunfermline)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dunfermline90%

×Draw8%

Dumbarton2%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunfermlineExpected goals in this matchDumbarton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.06

0.32

Dunfermline

3.06

Dumbarton

0.32

Dunfermline creates 856% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

1.63

creates per match

0.25

0.38

allows per match

4.50

creates per match

Dunfermline

1.63

Dumbarton

0.25

allows per match

Dunfermline

0.38

Dumbarton

4.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunfermline+0.00on par

Dumbarton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunfermline ↓

Dumbarton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–017%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–013%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Dunfermline or draw

98%

Dunfermline or Dumbarton

92%

Draw or Dumbarton

10%

Winning margin

Dunfermline wins by 2+

73%

Dumbarton wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Dunfermline 1+ goals

95%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

80%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

57%

Dumbarton 1+ goals

27%

Dumbarton 2+ goals

4%

Dumbarton 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

98%

Dumbarton (draw refunded)

2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunfermline at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Dumbarton away — creates 0.25, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunfermline attack 1.63 + Dumbarton defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.06

Dumbarton attack 0.25 + Dunfermline defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Dunfermline scores more

90%

level

8%

Dumbarton scores more

2%

Dunfermline at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

K. Higginbotham↳ F. Aird

23'

G. Gallagher← I. Russell

25'

K. Higginbotham↳ F. Aird

45'

F. Aird↳ L. Martin

46'

J. Talbot← L. Ashcroft

61'

J. Cardle← K. Higginbotham

61'

M. Stewart← K. Nisbet

65'

R. Williamson↳ J. Cardle

66'

D. McManus← N. Clark

75'

D. Handling← L. Burt

Dunfermline

Dumbarton

19

55

15

2

30

25

14

6

31

▼

Burt

23

▼

Russell

24

▼

Nisbet

25

Robinson

5

Morris

6

▼

Ashcroft

3

A

Martin

2

⚽

Williamso

7

⚽2

▼

Higginbot

26

Vincent

17

⚽A

Aird

28

Craigen

10

▼

Clark

16

Ryan

Manager: A. Johnston

46'▲J. Talbot←▼L. Ashcroft

61'▲J. Cardle←▼K. Higginbotham

66'▲D. McManus←▼N. Clark

Dunfermline substitutes

14Talbot11Cardle9McManus12Armstrong8Wedderburn20Gill27Shiels

Manager: S. Aitken

23'▲G. Gallagher←▼I. Russell

61'▲M. Stewart←▼K. Nisbet

75'▲D. Handling←▼L. Burt

Dumbarton substitutes

5Gallagher9Stewart21Handling1Gallacher7Gallagher8Wilson20Froxilias