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Dunfermline vs Buckie Thistle — League Cup 2018

Dunfermline
Dunfermline
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Buckie Thistle
Buckie Thistle
7/12/2022League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 3East End Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dunfermline82%
×Draw11%
Buckie Thistle7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunfermline
3.29
Buckie Thistle
0.91

Dunfermline creates 262% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 4 away

creates per match

Dunfermline
2.82
Buckie Thistle
1.00

allows per match

Dunfermline
0.82
Buckie Thistle
3.75

finishing

Dunfermline+0.00on par
Buckie Thistle+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunfermline ↓

Buckie Thistle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Dunfermline or draw
93%
Dunfermline or Buckie Thistle
89%
Draw or Buckie Thistle
18%

Winning margin

Dunfermline wins by 2+
64%
Buckie Thistle wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Dunfermline 1+ goals
96%
Dunfermline 2+ goals
83%
Dunfermline 3+ goals
62%
Buckie Thistle 1+ goals
60%
Buckie Thistle 2+ goals
23%
Buckie Thistle 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dunfermline (draw refunded)
92%
Buckie Thistle (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunfermline at home — creates 2.82, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Buckie Thistle away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunfermline attack 2.82 + Buckie Thistle defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.29

Buckie Thistle attack 1.00 + Dunfermline defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Dunfermline scores more
82%
level
11%
Buckie Thistle scores more
7%

Dunfermline at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunfermline vs Buckie Thistle

Dunfermline beat Buckie Thistle 5-0 in League Cup on July 12, 2022.

The match was played at East End Park in Dunfermline.