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Dunfermline vs Alloa Athletic — League Cup 2018

Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Alloa Athletic
Alloa Athletic
7/23/2022League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 8East End Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dunfermline60%
×Draw20%
Alloa Athletic21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunfermline
2.27
Alloa Athletic
1.27

Dunfermline creates 79% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dunfermline
2.82
Alloa Athletic
1.73

allows per match

Dunfermline
0.82
Alloa Athletic
1.73

finishing

Dunfermline+0.00on par
Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunfermline ↓

Alloa Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Dunfermline or draw
79%
Dunfermline or Alloa Athletic
80%
Draw or Alloa Athletic
40%

Winning margin

Dunfermline wins by 2+
37%
Alloa Athletic wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dunfermline 1+ goals
90%
Dunfermline 2+ goals
66%
Dunfermline 3+ goals
39%
Alloa Athletic 1+ goals
72%
Alloa Athletic 2+ goals
36%
Alloa Athletic 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dunfermline (draw refunded)
74%
Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunfermline at home — creates 2.82, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Alloa Athletic away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunfermline attack 2.82 + Alloa Athletic defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.27

Alloa Athletic attack 1.73 + Dunfermline defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dunfermline scores more
60%
level
20%
Alloa Athletic scores more
21%

Dunfermline at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Dunfermline 1–1 Alloa Athletic

Dunfermline and Alloa Athletic drew 1-1 in League Cup on July 23, 2022.

The match was played at East End Park in Dunfermline.