Dunfermline 6–0 Albion Rovers: Result & Stats

Dunfermline

FT

6 – 0

HT: 5 – 0

Albion Rovers

7/17/2019

League Cup · Group Stage - 3East End Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dunfermline79%

×Draw13%

Albion Rovers7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunfermlineExpected goals in this matchAlbion Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.80

0.74

Dunfermline

2.80

Albion Rovers

0.74

Dunfermline creates 278% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 9 away

2.82

creates per match

0.67

0.82

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Dunfermline

2.82

Albion Rovers

0.67

allows per match

Dunfermline

0.82

Albion Rovers

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunfermline+0.00on par

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunfermline ↓

Albion Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Dunfermline or draw

93%

Dunfermline or Albion Rovers

87%

Draw or Albion Rovers

21%

Winning margin

Dunfermline wins by 2+

59%

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Dunfermline 1+ goals

94%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

76%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

52%

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

52%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

17%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

92%

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunfermline at home — creates 2.82, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Albion Rovers away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunfermline attack 2.82 + Albion Rovers defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.80

Albion Rovers attack 0.67 + Dunfermline defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Dunfermline scores more

79%

level

13%

Albion Rovers scores more

7%

Dunfermline at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff