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Dundonald Bluebell vs Tayport — FA Cup 2019

Dundonald Bluebell
Dundonald Bluebell
FT
3 – 1
Tayport
Tayport
8/27/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundMoorside Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dundonald Bluebell50%
×Draw21%
Tayport29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundonald Bluebell
2.16
Tayport
1.63

Dundonald Bluebell creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Dundonald Bluebell
2.57
Tayport
1.25

allows per match

Dundonald Bluebell
2.00
Tayport
1.75

finishing

Dundonald Bluebell+0.00on par
Tayport+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundonald Bluebell ↓

Tayport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Dundonald Bluebell or draw
71%
Dundonald Bluebell or Tayport
79%
Draw or Tayport
50%

Winning margin

Dundonald Bluebell wins by 2+
29%
Tayport wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dundonald Bluebell 1+ goals
88%
Dundonald Bluebell 2+ goals
63%
Dundonald Bluebell 3+ goals
36%
Tayport 1+ goals
80%
Tayport 2+ goals
48%
Tayport 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dundonald Bluebell (draw refunded)
63%
Tayport (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundonald Bluebell at home — creates 2.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Tayport away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundonald Bluebell attack 2.57 + Tayport defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.16

Tayport attack 1.25 + Dundonald Bluebell defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dundonald Bluebell scores more
50%
level
21%
Tayport scores more
29%

Dundonald Bluebell at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dundonald Bluebell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Dundonald Bluebell 3–1 Tayport

Dundonald Bluebell beat Tayport 3-1 in FA Cup on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Moorside Park in Cardenden.