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Dundonald Bluebell vs Penicuik Athletic — FA Cup 2019

Dundonald Bluebell
Dundonald Bluebell
FT
1 – 3
Penicuik Athletic
Penicuik Athletic
8/28/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundMoorside Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dundonald Bluebell26%
×Draw19%
Penicuik Athletic55%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundonald Bluebell
1.69
Penicuik Athletic
2.50

Penicuik Athletic creates 48% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Dundonald Bluebell
2.57
Penicuik Athletic
3.00

allows per match

Dundonald Bluebell
2.00
Penicuik Athletic
0.80

finishing

Dundonald Bluebell+0.00on par
Penicuik Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundonald Bluebell ↓

Penicuik Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Dundonald Bluebell or draw
45%
Dundonald Bluebell or Penicuik Athletic
81%
Draw or Penicuik Athletic
74%

Winning margin

Dundonald Bluebell wins by 2+
12%
Penicuik Athletic wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Dundonald Bluebell 1+ goals
82%
Dundonald Bluebell 2+ goals
50%
Dundonald Bluebell 3+ goals
24%
Penicuik Athletic 1+ goals
92%
Penicuik Athletic 2+ goals
71%
Penicuik Athletic 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Dundonald Bluebell (draw refunded)
32%
Penicuik Athletic (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundonald Bluebell at home — creates 2.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Penicuik Athletic away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundonald Bluebell attack 2.57 + Penicuik Athletic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.69

Penicuik Athletic attack 3.00 + Dundonald Bluebell defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dundonald Bluebell scores more
26%
level
19%
Penicuik Athletic scores more
55%

Penicuik Athletic at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Penicuik Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Dundonald Bluebell 1–3 Penicuik Athletic

Penicuik Athletic beat Dundonald Bluebell 3-1 in FA Cup on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Moorside Park in Cardenden.