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Dundonald Bluebell vs Kilwinning Rangers — FA Cup 2019

Dundonald Bluebell
Dundonald Bluebell
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Kilwinning Rangers
Kilwinning Rangers
9/23/2023FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundMoorside Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dundonald Bluebell45%
×Draw20%
Kilwinning Rangers35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundonald Bluebell
2.29
Kilwinning Rangers
2.00

Dundonald Bluebell creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Dundonald Bluebell
2.57
Kilwinning Rangers
2.00

allows per match

Dundonald Bluebell
2.00
Kilwinning Rangers
2.00

finishing

Dundonald Bluebell+0.00on par
Kilwinning Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundonald Bluebell ↓

Kilwinning Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Dundonald Bluebell or draw
65%
Dundonald Bluebell or Kilwinning Rangers
80%
Draw or Kilwinning Rangers
55%

Winning margin

Dundonald Bluebell wins by 2+
27%
Kilwinning Rangers wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dundonald Bluebell 1+ goals
90%
Dundonald Bluebell 2+ goals
66%
Dundonald Bluebell 3+ goals
40%
Kilwinning Rangers 1+ goals
86%
Kilwinning Rangers 2+ goals
59%
Kilwinning Rangers 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Dundonald Bluebell (draw refunded)
57%
Kilwinning Rangers (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundonald Bluebell at home — creates 2.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Kilwinning Rangers away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundonald Bluebell attack 2.57 + Kilwinning Rangers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.29

Kilwinning Rangers attack 2.00 + Dundonald Bluebell defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dundonald Bluebell scores more
45%
level
20%
Kilwinning Rangers scores more
35%

Dundonald Bluebell at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dundonald Bluebell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dundonald Bluebell vs Kilwinning Rangers

Kilwinning Rangers beat Dundonald Bluebell 3-2 in FA Cup on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Moorside Park in Cardenden.