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Dundonald Bluebell vs Inverurie Loco Works — FA Cup 2019

Dundonald Bluebell
Dundonald Bluebell
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Inverurie Loco Works
Inverurie Loco Works
9/28/2024FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundMoorside Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dundonald Bluebell60%
×Draw19%
Inverurie Loco Works22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundonald Bluebell
2.54
Inverurie Loco Works
1.50

Dundonald Bluebell creates 69% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Dundonald Bluebell
2.57
Inverurie Loco Works
1.00

allows per match

Dundonald Bluebell
2.00
Inverurie Loco Works
2.50

finishing

Dundonald Bluebell+0.00on par
Inverurie Loco Works+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundonald Bluebell ↓

Inverurie Loco Works →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Dundonald Bluebell or draw
78%
Dundonald Bluebell or Inverurie Loco Works
81%
Draw or Inverurie Loco Works
40%

Winning margin

Dundonald Bluebell wins by 2+
39%
Inverurie Loco Works wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dundonald Bluebell 1+ goals
92%
Dundonald Bluebell 2+ goals
72%
Dundonald Bluebell 3+ goals
46%
Inverurie Loco Works 1+ goals
78%
Inverurie Loco Works 2+ goals
44%
Inverurie Loco Works 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dundonald Bluebell (draw refunded)
73%
Inverurie Loco Works (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundonald Bluebell at home — creates 2.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Inverurie Loco Works away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundonald Bluebell attack 2.57 + Inverurie Loco Works defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.54

Inverurie Loco Works attack 1.00 + Dundonald Bluebell defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dundonald Bluebell scores more
60%
level
19%
Inverurie Loco Works scores more
22%

Dundonald Bluebell at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dundonald Bluebell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dundonald Bluebell vs Inverurie Loco Works

Dundonald Bluebell and Inverurie Loco Works drew 1-1 in FA Cup on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Moorside Park in Cardenden.