Dundonald Bluebell 3–2 Edinburgh University

Dundonald Bluebell

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Edinburgh University

8/30/2025

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundMoorside Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dundonald Bluebell57%

×Draw18%

Edinburgh University25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dundonald BluebellExpected goals in this matchEdinburgh University

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.66

1.75

Dundonald Bluebell

2.66

Edinburgh University

1.75

Dundonald Bluebell creates 52% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

2.57

creates per match

1.50

2.00

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Dundonald Bluebell

2.57

Edinburgh University

1.50

allows per match

Dundonald Bluebell

2.00

Edinburgh University

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundonald Bluebell+0.00on par

Edinburgh University+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundonald Bluebell ↓

Edinburgh University →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Dundonald Bluebell or draw

75%

Dundonald Bluebell or Edinburgh University

82%

Draw or Edinburgh University

43%

Winning margin

Dundonald Bluebell wins by 2+

37%

Edinburgh University wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dundonald Bluebell 1+ goals

93%

Dundonald Bluebell 2+ goals

74%

Dundonald Bluebell 3+ goals

49%

Edinburgh University 1+ goals

83%

Edinburgh University 2+ goals

52%

Edinburgh University 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Dundonald Bluebell (draw refunded)

69%

Edinburgh University (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dundonald Bluebell at home — creates 2.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Edinburgh University away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dundonald Bluebell attack 2.57 + Edinburgh University defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.66

Edinburgh University attack 1.50 + Dundonald Bluebell defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dundonald Bluebell scores more

57%

level

18%

Edinburgh University scores more

25%

Dundonald Bluebell at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dundonald Bluebell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff