Dundonald Bluebell 4–2 Easthouses Lily

Dundonald Bluebell

4 – 2

Easthouses Lily

12/12/2020

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundMoorside Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dundonald Bluebell64%

×Draw18%

Easthouses Lily18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dundonald BluebellExpected goals in this matchEasthouses Lily

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.66

1.38

Dundonald Bluebell

2.66

Easthouses Lily

1.38

Dundonald Bluebell creates 93% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

2.57

creates per match

0.75

2.00

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Dundonald Bluebell

2.57

Easthouses Lily

0.75

allows per match

Dundonald Bluebell

2.00

Easthouses Lily

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundonald Bluebell+0.00on par

Easthouses Lily+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundonald Bluebell ↓

Easthouses Lily →

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Dundonald Bluebell or draw

82%

Dundonald Bluebell or Easthouses Lily

82%

Draw or Easthouses Lily

36%

Winning margin

Dundonald Bluebell wins by 2+

43%

Easthouses Lily wins by 2+

Team goals

Dundonald Bluebell 1+ goals

93%

Dundonald Bluebell 2+ goals

74%

Dundonald Bluebell 3+ goals

49%

Easthouses Lily 1+ goals

75%

Easthouses Lily 2+ goals

40%

Easthouses Lily 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Dundonald Bluebell (draw refunded)

78%

Easthouses Lily (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dundonald Bluebell at home — creates 2.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Easthouses Lily away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dundonald Bluebell attack 2.57 + Easthouses Lily defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.66

Easthouses Lily attack 0.75 + Dundonald Bluebell defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Dundonald Bluebell scores more

64%

level

18%

Easthouses Lily scores more

18%

Dundonald Bluebell at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Dundonald Bluebell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff