Dundela 0–3 Glentoran: Result & Stats

Dundela

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Glentoran

Unknown 86', 43', 38'

7/19/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Wilgar Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dundela18%

×Draw17%

Glentoran65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DundelaExpected goals in this matchGlentoran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

2.83

Dundela

1.47

Glentoran

2.83

Glentoran creates 93% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.44

creates per match

3.33

2.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Dundela

1.44

Glentoran

3.33

allows per match

Dundela

2.33

Glentoran

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundela+0.00on par

Glentoran+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundela ↓

Glentoran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Dundela or draw

35%

Dundela or Glentoran

83%

Draw or Glentoran

82%

Winning margin

Dundela wins by 2+

8%

Glentoran wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Dundela 1+ goals

77%

Dundela 2+ goals

43%

Dundela 3+ goals

18%

Glentoran 1+ goals

94%

Glentoran 2+ goals

77%

Glentoran 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Dundela (draw refunded)

22%

Glentoran (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundela at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

Glentoran away — creates 3.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundela attack 1.44 + Glentoran defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.47

Glentoran attack 3.33 + Dundela defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Dundela scores more

18%

level

17%

Glentoran scores more

65%

Glentoran at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Glentoran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

43'

86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff