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Dundela vs Bangor — League #407 2026

Dundela
Dundela
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Bangor
Bangor
E. Kelly 58'
B. Arthurs 45'
T. Mulvenna 42'
M. Ferguson 20'
11/9/2024League #407League #407 · Round 15Wilgar Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dundela25%
×Draw20%
Bangor55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundela
1.45
Bangor
2.23

Bangor creates 54% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dundela
1.58
Bangor
2.58

allows per match

Dundela
1.88
Bangor
1.32

finishing

Dundela+0.00on par
Bangor+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundela ↓

Bangor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Dundela or draw
45%
Dundela or Bangor
80%
Draw or Bangor
75%

Winning margin

Dundela wins by 2+
11%
Bangor wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Dundela 1+ goals
77%
Dundela 2+ goals
42%
Dundela 3+ goals
18%
Bangor 1+ goals
89%
Bangor 2+ goals
65%
Bangor 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Dundela (draw refunded)
31%
Bangor (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundela at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.88 · 33 matches

Bangor away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundela attack 1.58 + Bangor defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Bangor attack 2.58 + Dundela defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dundela scores more
25%
level
20%
Bangor scores more
55%

Bangor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
M. Ferguson
42'
T. Mulvenna
45'
B. Arthurs
58'
E. Kelly

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dundela vs Bangor

Bangor beat Dundela 3-1 in League #407 on November 9, 2024.

Goals: M. Ferguson (20'), T. Mulvenna (42'), B. Arthurs (45'), E. Kelly (58').

The match was played at Wilgar Park in Belfast.