Dundela 2–3 Ballymena United: Result & Stats

Dundela

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Ballymena United

7/18/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dundela21%

×Draw20%

Ballymena United59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DundelaExpected goals in this matchBallymena United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

2.17

Dundela

1.22

Ballymena United

2.17

Ballymena United creates 78% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.44

creates per match

2.00

2.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Dundela

1.44

Ballymena United

2.00

allows per match

Dundela

2.33

Ballymena United

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundela+0.00on par

Ballymena United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundela ↓

Ballymena United →

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–03%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Dundela or draw

41%

Dundela or Ballymena United

80%

Draw or Ballymena United

79%

Winning margin

Dundela wins by 2+

Ballymena United wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Dundela 1+ goals

70%

Dundela 2+ goals

34%

Dundela 3+ goals

12%

Ballymena United 1+ goals

89%

Ballymena United 2+ goals

64%

Ballymena United 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Dundela (draw refunded)

26%

Ballymena United (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dundela at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

Ballymena United away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dundela attack 1.44 + Ballymena United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.22

Ballymena United attack 2.00 + Dundela defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dundela scores more

21%

level

20%

Ballymena United scores more

59%

Ballymena United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ballymena United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Dundela

Ballymena

Manager: S. Gourley

Manager: Oran Kearney