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Dundela vs Armagh City — League #407 2026

Dundela
Dundela
Preview
15:00
Armagh City
Armagh City
11/28/2026League #407League #407 · Round 18
Big match
56%
Dundela
model favours
56%20%24%

80% of Armagh City’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
71%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dundela56%
×Draw20%
Armagh City24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundela
2.26
Armagh City
1.44

Dundela creates 57% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 16 away

creates per match

Dundela
1.58
Armagh City
1.00

allows per match

Dundela
1.88
Armagh City
2.94

finishing

Dundela+0.00on par
Armagh City+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundela ↓

Armagh City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Dundela or draw
76%
Dundela or Armagh City
80%
Draw or Armagh City
44%

Winning margin

Dundela wins by 2+
34%
Armagh City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dundela 1+ goals
89%
Dundela 2+ goals
66%
Dundela 3+ goals
39%
Armagh City 1+ goals
76%
Armagh City 2+ goals
42%
Armagh City 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dundela (draw refunded)
70%
Armagh City (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundela at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.88 · 33 matches

Armagh City away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundela attack 1.58 + Armagh City defence 2.94 → ÷2 → 2.26

Armagh City attack 1.00 + Dundela defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dundela scores more
56%
level
20%
Armagh City scores more
24%

Dundela at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dundela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Dundela
LDLDD
City
LLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dundela host Armagh City

November 28, 2026: Dundela take on Armagh City in League #407. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.