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Dundela vs Armagh City — League #407 2026

Dundela
Dundela
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Armagh City
Armagh City
4/18/2026League #407League #407 · Relegation Group - 37

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dundela62%
×Draw19%
Armagh City19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundela
2.40
Armagh City
1.26

Dundela creates 90% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dundela
1.74
Armagh City
0.93

allows per match

Dundela
1.58
Armagh City
3.07

finishing

Dundela+0.00on par
Armagh City+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundela ↓

Armagh City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Dundela or draw
81%
Dundela or Armagh City
81%
Draw or Armagh City
38%

Winning margin

Dundela wins by 2+
40%
Armagh City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dundela 1+ goals
91%
Dundela 2+ goals
69%
Dundela 3+ goals
42%
Armagh City 1+ goals
72%
Armagh City 2+ goals
36%
Armagh City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dundela (draw refunded)
77%
Armagh City (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundela at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

Armagh City away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundela attack 1.74 + Armagh City defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.40

Armagh City attack 0.93 + Dundela defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dundela scores more
62%
level
19%
Armagh City scores more
19%

Dundela at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dundela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dundela vs Armagh City

Dundela and Armagh City drew 0-0 in League #407 on April 18, 2026.