Dundee 0–3 Ross County: Result & Stats

Dundee

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Ross County

J. White 78' (pen)

J. Nisbet 70'

N. Chilvers 23'

12/26/2024

Premiership · 1st Phase - 19The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dundee33%

×Draw25%

Ross County41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DundeeExpected goals in this matchRoss County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.50

Dundee

1.32

Ross County

1.50

Ross County creates 14% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 4 away

1.64

creates per match

1.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Dundee

1.64

Ross County

1.50

allows per match

Dundee

1.50

Ross County

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundee+0.00on par

Ross County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee ↓

Ross County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dundee or draw

59%

Dundee or Ross County

75%

Draw or Ross County

67%

Winning margin

Dundee wins by 2+

15%

Ross County wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Dundee 1+ goals

73%

Dundee 2+ goals

38%

Dundee 3+ goals

15%

Ross County 1+ goals

78%

Ross County 2+ goals

44%

Ross County 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Dundee (draw refunded)

45%

Ross County (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundee at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

Ross County away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundee attack 1.64 + Ross County defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ross County attack 1.50 + Dundee defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dundee scores more

33%

level

25%

Ross County scores more

41%

Ross County at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ross County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

N. Chilvers

Ross County · F

8.6

Match Events

23'

N. Chilvers↳ J. Grieves

29'

Kacper Łopata

34'

J. Nisbet← A. Denholm

46'

F. Robertson← J. McGhee

46'

S. Kelly← A. Portales

53'

Jack Grieves

60'

J. White← J. Grieves

68'

E. Ingram← S. Tiffoney

68'

C. Main← S. Murray

68'

S. Palmer-Houlden← O. Adewumi

70'

J. Nisbet↳ N. Chilvers

78'

E. Brophy← R. Hale

78'

J. WhitePenalty

79'

C. Telfer← N. Chilvers

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DundeeRoss

Overview

64%Possession36%

9Total Shots22

5Corners5

9Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots22

2On Target7

5Off Target9

2Blocked6

3Inside Box13

6Outside Box9

Passing

64%Possession36%

522Total Passes282

428Accurate Passes176

82%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls8

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1