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Dundee vs Leyton Orient — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dundee
Dundee
FT
3 – 0
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
7/6/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dundee28%
×Draw22%
Leyton Orient50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundee
1.44
Leyton Orient
2.00

Leyton Orient creates 39% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dundee
1.50
Leyton Orient
2.00

allows per match

Dundee
2.00
Leyton Orient
1.38

finishing

Dundee+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Dundee or draw
50%
Dundee or Leyton Orient
78%
Draw or Leyton Orient
72%

Winning margin

Dundee wins by 2+
12%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Dundee 1+ goals
76%
Dundee 2+ goals
42%
Dundee 3+ goals
18%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
86%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
59%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Dundee (draw refunded)
36%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundee at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundee attack 1.50 + Leyton Orient defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Leyton Orient attack 2.00 + Dundee defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dundee scores more
28%
level
22%
Leyton Orient scores more
50%

Leyton Orient at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Dundee 3–0 Leyton Orient

Dundee beat Leyton Orient 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 6, 2021.

The match was played at Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park in Dundee.