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Dundee vs Dumbarton — League Cup 2018

Dundee
Dundee
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
7/26/2023League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 7Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dundee80%
×Draw13%
Dumbarton7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundee
2.76
Dumbarton
0.71

Dundee creates 289% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dundee
2.80
Dumbarton
0.67

allows per match

Dundee
0.75
Dumbarton
2.73

finishing

Dundee+0.00on par
Dumbarton+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee ↓

Dumbarton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Dundee or draw
93%
Dundee or Dumbarton
87%
Draw or Dumbarton
20%

Winning margin

Dundee wins by 2+
59%
Dumbarton wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Dundee 1+ goals
94%
Dundee 2+ goals
76%
Dundee 3+ goals
51%
Dumbarton 1+ goals
51%
Dumbarton 2+ goals
16%
Dumbarton 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dundee (draw refunded)
92%
Dumbarton (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundee at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Dumbarton away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundee attack 2.80 + Dumbarton defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.76

Dumbarton attack 0.67 + Dundee defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Dundee scores more
80%
level
13%
Dumbarton scores more
7%

Dundee at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Dundee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Dundee 3–1 Dumbarton

Dundee beat Dumbarton 3-1 in League Cup on July 26, 2023.

The match was played at Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park in Dundee.