Dundee 3–0 Cove Rangers: Result & Stats

Dundee

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cove Rangers

C. Adam 87' (pen)

D. Mullen 84'

P. McGowan 6'

11/10/2020

League Cup · Group Stage - 6Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Dundee67%

×Draw18%

Cove Rangers15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DundeeExpected goals in this matchCove Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

1.00

Dundee

2.36

Cove Rangers

1.00

Dundee creates 136% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

2.80

creates per match

1.25

0.75

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Dundee

2.80

Cove Rangers

1.25

allows per match

Dundee

0.75

Cove Rangers

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundee+0.00on par

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee ↓

Cove Rangers →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Dundee or draw

85%

Dundee or Cove Rangers

82%

Draw or Cove Rangers

33%

Winning margin

Dundee wins by 2+

45%

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

Team goals

Dundee 1+ goals

90%

Dundee 2+ goals

68%

Dundee 3+ goals

41%

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

63%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

26%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Dundee (draw refunded)

82%

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dundee at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dundee attack 2.80 + Cove Rangers defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.36

Cove Rangers attack 1.25 + Dundee defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Dundee scores more

67%

level

18%

Cove Rangers scores more

15%

Dundee at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Dundee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

P. McGowan↳ D. McDaid

42'

46'

53'

54'

58'

67'

67'

H. Ritchie← Sebastian Ross

69'

B. Watson← L. McIntosh

70'

R. McAllister← M. Megginson

74'

F. Robertson← S. Byrne

84'

D. Mullen↳ C. Adam

87'

C. AdamPenalty

88'

J. Wilkie← D. Mullen

89'

C. Blacklock← M. Anderson

89'

N. Hamilton← J. McGhee

Dundee

Cove

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽A

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Mullen

Manager: J. McPake

74'▲F. Robertson←▼S. Byrne

88'▲J. Wilkie←▼D. Mullen

89'▲C. Blacklock←▼M. Anderson

89'▲N. Hamilton←▼J. McGhee

Dundee substitutes

19Robertson20Wilkie40Blacklock39Hamilton41Strachan12Ferrie27Strachan

Manager: P. Hartley

46'▲R. Graham←▼J. Semple

67'▲C. Scully←▼J. Brown

67'▲H. Ritchie←▼Sebastian Ross

69'▲B. Watson←▼L. McIntosh

70'▲R. McAllister←▼M. Megginson

Cove Rangers substitutes

20Graham4Scully17Ritchie7Watson13McAllister21Demus

League Cup: Dundee 3–0 Cove Rangers

Dundee beat Cove Rangers 3-0 in League Cup on November 10, 2020.

Goals: P. McGowan (6'), D. Mullen (84'), C. Adam (87' pen).

The match was played at Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park in Dundee.

Dundee vs Cove Rangers — League Cup 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Cup: Dundee 3–0 Cove Rangers