Dundee 3–1 Annan Athletic: Result & Stats

Dundee

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Annan Athletic

S. Palmer-Houlden 90+1'

S. Murray 85', 34'

T. Goss 40'

7/23/2024

League Cup · Group Stage - 6The Carnegie Fuels Stadium at Glebe Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dundee90%

×Draw7%

Annan Athletic4%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DundeeExpected goals in this matchAnnan Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.33

0.90

Dundee

4.33

Annan Athletic

0.90

Dundee creates 381% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

3.00

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

5.67

creates per match

Dundee

3.00

Annan Athletic

1.00

allows per match

Dundee

0.80

Annan Athletic

5.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundee+0.00on par

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee ↓

Annan Athletic →

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–03%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–09%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

73%27%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Dundee or draw

96%

Dundee or Annan Athletic

93%

Draw or Annan Athletic

10%

Winning margin

Dundee wins by 2+

77%

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

Team goals

Dundee 1+ goals

98%

Dundee 2+ goals

92%

Dundee 3+ goals

77%

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

59%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

23%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Dundee (draw refunded)

96%

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dundee at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Annan Athletic away — creates 1.00, concedes 5.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dundee attack 3.00 + Annan Athletic defence 5.67 → ÷2 → 4.33

Annan Athletic attack 1.00 + Dundee defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 90%?"

Dundee scores more

90%

level

Annan Athletic scores more

Dundee at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Dundee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

S. Murray↳ L. McCowan

40'

46'

58'

67'

67'

S. Tiffoney← F. Robertson

67'

S. Palmer-Houlden← C. Main

68'

68'

75'

83'

83'

85'

87'

J. Mulligan← E. Ingram

88'

J. Stevenson← R. Quitongo

90+1'

S. Palmer-Houlden

Dundee

Annan

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: T. Docherty

67'▲L. Graham←▼R. Astley

67'▲S. Tiffoney←▼F. Robertson

67'▲S. Palmer-Houlden←▼C. Main

87'▲J. Mulligan←▼E. Ingram

Dundee substitutes

25Graham7Tiffoney23Palmer-Houlden8Mulligan55Lochhead50Richardson31Carson30Sharp

Manager: W. Gibson

46'▲A. Smith←▼J. Dixon

75'▲R. Muir←▼W. Gibson

83'▲A. Quigg←▼Malik Zaid

88'▲J. Stevenson←▼R. Quitongo

Annan Athletic substitutes

9Smith14Muir20Quigg21Stevenson18Fleming12Fleming

League Cup: Dundee 3–1 Annan Athletic

Dundee beat Annan Athletic 3-1 in League Cup on July 23, 2024.

Goals: S. Murray (34', 85'), T. Goss (40'), S. Palmer-Houlden (90+1').

The match was played at The Carnegie Fuels Stadium at Glebe Park in Brechin.

Dundee vs Annan Athletic — League Cup 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Cup: Dundee 3–1 Annan Athletic