Dundee Utd 3–0 Peterhead: Result & Stats

Dundee Utd

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Peterhead

K. Holt 79' (pen), 76' (pen)

L. Moult 22'

7/22/2023

League Cup · Group Stage - 5Tannadice Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Dundee Utd70%

×Draw18%

Peterhead11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dundee UtdExpected goals in this matchPeterhead

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.73

Dundee Utd

2.17

Peterhead

0.73

Dundee Utd creates 197% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

1.83

creates per match

0.64

0.83

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Dundee Utd

1.83

Peterhead

0.64

allows per match

Dundee Utd

0.83

Peterhead

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundee Utd+0.00on par

Peterhead+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee Utd ↓

Peterhead →

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Dundee Utd or draw

89%

Dundee Utd or Peterhead

82%

Draw or Peterhead

30%

Winning margin

Dundee Utd wins by 2+

46%

Peterhead wins by 2+

Team goals

Dundee Utd 1+ goals

89%

Dundee Utd 2+ goals

64%

Dundee Utd 3+ goals

36%

Peterhead 1+ goals

52%

Peterhead 2+ goals

17%

Peterhead 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Dundee Utd (draw refunded)

86%

Peterhead (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dundee Utd at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Peterhead away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dundee Utd attack 1.83 + Peterhead defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.17

Peterhead attack 0.64 + Dundee Utd defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Dundee Utd scores more

70%

level

18%

Peterhead scores more

11%

Dundee Utd at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Dundee Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

L. Moult↳ A. Meekison

44'

A. McCarthy

45+1'

K. Shanks

55'

J. Brown

56'

M. Anim Cudjoe← A. Meekison

57'

K. Fotheringham← L. Moult

57'

D. Glass← G. Middleton

57'

C. Sibbald← C. Mochrie

61'

J. McKee← Jack Brown

61'

C. O’Keefe← Jordon Brown

61'

H. Ritchie← C. Duthie

69'

C. Goldie← S. Ross

75'

C. Goldie

76'

K. HoltPenalty

77'

R. MacLeod← T. Watt

77'

A. Reid← R. Ward

78'

R. Strachan

79'

K. HoltPenalty

Dundee

Peterhead

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Moult

▼

Watt

Manager: J. Goodwin

56'▲M. Anim Cudjoe←▼A. Meekison

57'▲K. Fotheringham←▼L. Moult

57'▲D. Glass←▼G. Middleton

57'▲C. Sibbald←▼C. Mochrie

77'▲R. MacLeod←▼T. Watt

Dundee Utd substitutes

28Cudjoe18Fotheringham21Glass14Sibbald27MacLeod13Newman22Freeman5Denham11Chalmers

Manager: Jordon Brown

61'▲J. McKee←▼Jack Brown

61'▲C. O’Keefe←▼Jordon Brown

61'▲H. Ritchie←▼C. Duthie

69'▲C. Goldie←▼S. Ross

77'▲A. Reid←▼R. Ward

Peterhead substitutes

17McKee77O’Keefe7Ritchie4Goldie19Reid3Armstrong16Wilson20Oluyemi24Smith

Match Recap: Dundee Utd vs Peterhead

Dundee Utd beat Peterhead 3-0 in League Cup on July 22, 2023.

Goals: L. Moult (22'), K. Holt (76' pen, 79' pen).

The match was played at Tannadice Park in Dundee.

Dundee Utd vs Peterhead — League Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dundee Utd vs Peterhead