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Dundee Utd vs Elgin City — League Cup 2018

Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd
FT
6 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Elgin City
Elgin City
7/14/2021League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 4Tannadice Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Dundee Utd76%
×Draw15%
Elgin City9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dundee Utd
2.58
Elgin City
0.78

Dundee Utd creates 231% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dundee Utd
1.83
Elgin City
0.73

allows per match

Dundee Utd
0.83
Elgin City
3.33

finishing

Dundee Utd+0.00on par
Elgin City+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee Utd ↓

Elgin City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dundee Utd or draw
91%
Dundee Utd or Elgin City
85%
Draw or Elgin City
24%

Winning margin

Dundee Utd wins by 2+
54%
Elgin City wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Dundee Utd 1+ goals
92%
Dundee Utd 2+ goals
72%
Dundee Utd 3+ goals
47%
Elgin City 1+ goals
54%
Elgin City 2+ goals
18%
Elgin City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dundee Utd (draw refunded)
89%
Elgin City (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundee Utd at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Elgin City away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundee Utd attack 1.83 + Elgin City defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.58

Elgin City attack 0.73 + Dundee Utd defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Dundee Utd scores more
76%
level
15%
Elgin City scores more
9%

Dundee Utd at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Dundee Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Dundee Utd 6–1 Elgin City

Dundee Utd beat Elgin City 6-1 in League Cup on July 14, 2021.

The match was played at Tannadice Park in Dundee.