Dundee Utd 4–1 Cowdenbeath: Result & Stats

Dundee Utd

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cowdenbeath

7/23/2017

League Cup · Group Stage - 5Tannadice Park (Dundee)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Dundee Utd72%

×Draw18%

Cowdenbeath10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dundee UtdExpected goals in this matchCowdenbeath

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

0.65

Dundee Utd

2.18

Cowdenbeath

0.65

Dundee Utd creates 235% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

2.00

creates per match

0.45

0.85

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Dundee Utd

2.00

Cowdenbeath

0.45

allows per match

Dundee Utd

0.85

Cowdenbeath

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundee Utd+0.00on par

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee Utd ↓

Cowdenbeath →

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dundee Utd or draw

90%

Dundee Utd or Cowdenbeath

82%

Draw or Cowdenbeath

28%

Winning margin

Dundee Utd wins by 2+

48%

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+

Team goals

Dundee Utd 1+ goals

89%

Dundee Utd 2+ goals

64%

Dundee Utd 3+ goals

37%

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals

48%

Cowdenbeath 2+ goals

14%

Cowdenbeath 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Dundee Utd (draw refunded)

88%

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dundee Utd at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Cowdenbeath away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dundee Utd attack 2.00 + Cowdenbeath defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.18

Cowdenbeath attack 0.45 + Dundee Utd defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Dundee Utd scores more

72%

level

18%

Cowdenbeath scores more

10%

Dundee Utd at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Dundee Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff