Dundalk 6–1 Athlone Town: Result & Stats

Dundalk

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Athlone Town

R. Vaughan 90', 80'

K. Ward 90'

E. Kenny 58', 27'

G. Arubi 11'

J. Oyenuga 8'

8/8/2025

First Division · Round 27Oriel Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dundalk62%

×Draw20%

Athlone Town17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DundalkExpected goals in this matchAthlone Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.02

Dundalk

2.11

Athlone Town

1.02

Dundalk creates 107% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 118 away

2.33

creates per match

1.04

1.00

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Dundalk

2.33

Athlone Town

1.04

allows per match

Dundalk

1.00

Athlone Town

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundalk+0.00on par

Athlone Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundalk ↓

Athlone Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dundalk or draw

83%

Dundalk or Athlone Town

80%

Draw or Athlone Town

38%

Winning margin

Dundalk wins by 2+

39%

Athlone Town wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dundalk 1+ goals

88%

Dundalk 2+ goals

62%

Dundalk 3+ goals

35%

Athlone Town 1+ goals

64%

Athlone Town 2+ goals

27%

Athlone Town 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dundalk (draw refunded)

78%

Athlone Town (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundalk at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Athlone Town away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.89 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundalk attack 2.33 + Athlone Town defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.11

Athlone Town attack 1.04 + Dundalk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dundalk scores more

62%

level

20%

Athlone Town scores more

17%

Dundalk at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dundalk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

11'

27'

32'

46'

58'

65'

A. Paraschiv← D. McDaid

65'

R. Vaughan← G. Arubi

65'

D. Ebbe← H. Groome

66'

D. Adewale← G. Tetteh

66'

B. Gilmore← D. McKenna

71'

B. Gilmore

73'

D. Williams← W. Smith

80'

R. Vaughan

84'

K. Ward← E. Kenny

84'

N. Garbett← D. Horgan

90'

K. Ward

90'

R. Vaughan

Dundalk

Athlone

99

Axworthy

2

Thiam

12

Omorehiom

4

▼

29

3

15

36

▼

Gulidov

25

▼

Smith

24

▼

Tetteh

6

⚽

1

31

2

4

15

6

7

▼

Horgan

16

⚽2

▼

Kenny

8

▼

Groome

27

▼

McDaid

11

⚽

▼

Arubi

Manager: C. Kilduff

65'▲A. Paraschiv←▼D. McDaid

65'▲R. Vaughan←▼G. Arubi

65'▲D. Ebbe←▼H. Groome

84'▲K. Ward←▼E. Kenny

84'▲N. Garbett←▼D. Horgan

Dundalk substitutes

18Cherrie19Spaight26Tracey17Ward23Paraschiv14Garbett24Molloy22Vaughan9Ebbe

Manager: D. Byrne

46'▲D. Hand←▼S. Gulidov

66'▲D. Adewale←▼G. Tetteh

66'▲B. Gilmore←▼D. McKenna

73'▲D. Williams←▼W. Smith

Athlone Town substitutes

7Adewale14Baba18Duffy26Gilmore5Hand32Lennon31Sheerin13Trainor9Williams

First Division: Dundalk 6–1 Athlone Town

Dundalk beat Athlone Town 6-1 in First Division on August 8, 2025.

Goals: J. Oyenuga (8'), G. Arubi (11'), E. Kenny (27', 58'), R. Vaughan (80', 90'), K. Ward (90').

The match was played at Oriel Park in Dundalk.

Dundalk vs Athlone Town — First Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First Division: Dundalk 6–1 Athlone Town