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Dunbeholden vs UWI — Premier League 2019

Dunbeholden
Dunbeholden
CANC
18:00
UWI
UWI
8/7/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dunbeholden50%
×Draw25%
UWI24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunbeholden
1.58
UWI
1.02

Dunbeholden creates 55% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dunbeholden
1.38
UWI
0.79

allows per match

Dunbeholden
1.25
UWI
1.79

finishing

Dunbeholden+0.00on par
UWI+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunbeholden ↓

UWI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dunbeholden or draw
76%
Dunbeholden or UWI
75%
Draw or UWI
50%

Winning margin

Dunbeholden wins by 2+
26%
UWI wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dunbeholden 1+ goals
79%
Dunbeholden 2+ goals
47%
Dunbeholden 3+ goals
21%
UWI 1+ goals
64%
UWI 2+ goals
27%
UWI 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dunbeholden (draw refunded)
67%
UWI (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunbeholden at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 93 matches

UWI away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunbeholden attack 1.38 + UWI defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

UWI attack 0.79 + Dunbeholden defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dunbeholden scores more
50%
level
25%
UWI scores more
24%

Dunbeholden at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dunbeholden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dunbeholden face UWI (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Dunbeholden hosting UWI. Match starts August 7, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.