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Dunbeholden vs Treasure Beach — Premier League 2019

Dunbeholden
Dunbeholden
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Treasure Beach
Treasure Beach
2/22/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Dunbeholden Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Dunbeholden45%
×Draw27%
Treasure Beach28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunbeholden
1.42
Treasure Beach
1.06

Dunbeholden creates 34% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 31 away

creates per match

Dunbeholden
1.38
Treasure Beach
0.87

allows per match

Dunbeholden
1.25
Treasure Beach
1.45

finishing

Dunbeholden+0.00on par
Treasure Beach+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunbeholden ↓

Treasure Beach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dunbeholden or draw
72%
Dunbeholden or Treasure Beach
73%
Draw or Treasure Beach
55%

Winning margin

Dunbeholden wins by 2+
22%
Treasure Beach wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dunbeholden 1+ goals
76%
Dunbeholden 2+ goals
41%
Dunbeholden 3+ goals
17%
Treasure Beach 1+ goals
65%
Treasure Beach 2+ goals
29%
Treasure Beach 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dunbeholden (draw refunded)
62%
Treasure Beach (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunbeholden at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 93 matches

Treasure Beach away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunbeholden attack 1.38 + Treasure Beach defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Treasure Beach attack 0.87 + Dunbeholden defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dunbeholden scores more
45%
level
27%
Treasure Beach scores more
28%

Dunbeholden at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dunbeholden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunbeholden vs Treasure Beach

Dunbeholden beat Treasure Beach 4-2 in Premier League on February 22, 2026.

The match was played at Dunbeholden Sports Complex in Portmore.