Dunbeholden 1–0 Humble Lions: Result & Stats

Dunbeholden

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Humble Lions

12/21/2023

Premier League · Round 2Jamaica College Ashenheim Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Dunbeholden45%

×Draw26%

Humble Lions29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunbeholdenExpected goals in this matchHumble Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.10

Dunbeholden

1.44

Humble Lions

1.10

Dunbeholden creates 31% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 74 away

1.38

creates per match

0.95

1.25

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Dunbeholden

1.38

Humble Lions

0.95

allows per match

Dunbeholden

1.25

Humble Lions

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunbeholden+0.00on par

Humble Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunbeholden ↓

Humble Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dunbeholden or draw

71%

Dunbeholden or Humble Lions

74%

Draw or Humble Lions

55%

Winning margin

Dunbeholden wins by 2+

22%

Humble Lions wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dunbeholden 1+ goals

76%

Dunbeholden 2+ goals

42%

Dunbeholden 3+ goals

18%

Humble Lions 1+ goals

67%

Humble Lions 2+ goals

30%

Humble Lions 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dunbeholden (draw refunded)

61%

Humble Lions (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunbeholden at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 93 matches

Humble Lions away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.51 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunbeholden attack 1.38 + Humble Lions defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Humble Lions attack 0.95 + Dunbeholden defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dunbeholden scores more

45%

level

26%

Humble Lions scores more

29%

Dunbeholden at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dunbeholden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff