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Dunbeholden vs Arnett Gardens — Premier League 2019

Dunbeholden
Dunbeholden
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Arnett Gardens
Arnett Gardens
12/22/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Prison Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Dunbeholden33%
×Draw25%
Arnett Gardens42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunbeholden
1.28
Arnett Gardens
1.48

Arnett Gardens creates 16% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 103 away

creates per match

Dunbeholden
1.38
Arnett Gardens
1.71

allows per match

Dunbeholden
1.25
Arnett Gardens
1.19

finishing

Dunbeholden+0.00on par
Arnett Gardens+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunbeholden ↓

Arnett Gardens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dunbeholden or draw
58%
Dunbeholden or Arnett Gardens
75%
Draw or Arnett Gardens
67%

Winning margin

Dunbeholden wins by 2+
14%
Arnett Gardens wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dunbeholden 1+ goals
72%
Dunbeholden 2+ goals
37%
Dunbeholden 3+ goals
14%
Arnett Gardens 1+ goals
77%
Arnett Gardens 2+ goals
43%
Arnett Gardens 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dunbeholden (draw refunded)
44%
Arnett Gardens (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunbeholden at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 93 matches

Arnett Gardens away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunbeholden attack 1.38 + Arnett Gardens defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Arnett Gardens attack 1.71 + Dunbeholden defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dunbeholden scores more
33%
level
25%
Arnett Gardens scores more
42%

Arnett Gardens at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arnett Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunbeholden vs Arnett Gardens

Arnett Gardens beat Dunbeholden 1-0 in Premier League on December 22, 2024.

The match was played at Prison Oval in Spanish Town.