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Dunbar United vs Vale of Leithen — FA Cup 2019

Dunbar United
Dunbar United
FT
4 – 2
Vale of Leithen
Vale of Leithen
9/2/2023FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundNew Countess Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dunbar United67%
×Draw16%
Vale of Leithen17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunbar United
3.06
Vale of Leithen
1.53

Dunbar United creates 100% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Dunbar United
1.78
Vale of Leithen
1.17

allows per match

Dunbar United
1.89
Vale of Leithen
4.33

finishing

Dunbar United+0.00on par
Vale of Leithen+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunbar United ↓

Vale of Leithen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Dunbar United or draw
83%
Dunbar United or Vale of Leithen
84%
Draw or Vale of Leithen
33%

Winning margin

Dunbar United wins by 2+
48%
Vale of Leithen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dunbar United 1+ goals
95%
Dunbar United 2+ goals
80%
Dunbar United 3+ goals
57%
Vale of Leithen 1+ goals
78%
Vale of Leithen 2+ goals
45%
Vale of Leithen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dunbar United (draw refunded)
80%
Vale of Leithen (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunbar United at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Vale of Leithen away — creates 1.17, concedes 4.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunbar United attack 1.78 + Vale of Leithen defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.06

Vale of Leithen attack 1.17 + Dunbar United defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Dunbar United scores more
67%
level
16%
Vale of Leithen scores more
17%

Dunbar United at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Dunbar United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Dunbar United 4–2 Vale of Leithen

Dunbar United beat Vale of Leithen 4-2 in FA Cup on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at New Countess Park in Dunbar, East Lothian.