Dunbar United 1–3 Stirling University

Dunbar United

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Stirling University

10/22/2022

FA Cup · 2nd RoundNew Countess Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dunbar United47%

×Draw22%

Stirling University31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunbar UnitedExpected goals in this matchStirling University

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.51

Dunbar United

1.89

Stirling University

1.51

Dunbar United creates 25% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.78

creates per match

1.14

1.89

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Dunbar United

1.78

Stirling University

1.14

allows per match

Dunbar United

1.89

Stirling University

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunbar United+0.00on par

Stirling University+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunbar United ↓

Stirling University →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Dunbar United or draw

69%

Dunbar United or Stirling University

78%

Draw or Stirling University

53%

Winning margin

Dunbar United wins by 2+

26%

Stirling University wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dunbar United 1+ goals

85%

Dunbar United 2+ goals

56%

Dunbar United 3+ goals

29%

Stirling University 1+ goals

78%

Stirling University 2+ goals

44%

Stirling University 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Dunbar United (draw refunded)

60%

Stirling University (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dunbar United at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Stirling University away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dunbar United attack 1.78 + Stirling University defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

Stirling University attack 1.14 + Dunbar United defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dunbar United scores more

47%

level

22%

Stirling University scores more

31%

Dunbar United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dunbar United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunbar United vs Stirling University

Stirling University beat Dunbar United 3-1 in FA Cup on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at New Countess Park in Dunbar, East Lothian.

Dunbar United vs Stirling University — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dunbar United vs Stirling University