Dunbar United 1–0 East Fife: Result & Stats

Dunbar United

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

East Fife

10/28/2023

FA Cup · 2nd RoundNew Countess Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dunbar United48%

×Draw24%

East Fife28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunbar UnitedExpected goals in this matchEast Fife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.28

Dunbar United

1.73

East Fife

1.28

Dunbar United creates 35% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

1.78

creates per match

0.67

1.89

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Dunbar United

1.78

East Fife

0.67

allows per match

Dunbar United

1.89

East Fife

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunbar United+0.00on par

East Fife+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunbar United ↓

East Fife →

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dunbar United or draw

72%

Dunbar United or East Fife

76%

Draw or East Fife

52%

Winning margin

Dunbar United wins by 2+

26%

East Fife wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dunbar United 1+ goals

82%

Dunbar United 2+ goals

52%

Dunbar United 3+ goals

25%

East Fife 1+ goals

72%

East Fife 2+ goals

37%

East Fife 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dunbar United (draw refunded)

63%

East Fife (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dunbar United at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

East Fife away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dunbar United attack 1.78 + East Fife defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

East Fife attack 0.67 + Dunbar United defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dunbar United scores more

48%

level

24%

East Fife scores more

28%

Dunbar United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dunbar United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff