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Dunbar United vs Cumnock Juniors — FA Cup 2019

Dunbar United
Dunbar United
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Cumnock Juniors
Cumnock Juniors
8/30/2025FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundNew Countess Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dunbar United33%
×Draw21%
Cumnock Juniors45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunbar United
1.73
Cumnock Juniors
2.03

Cumnock Juniors creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Dunbar United
1.78
Cumnock Juniors
2.17

allows per match

Dunbar United
1.89
Cumnock Juniors
1.67

finishing

Dunbar United+0.00on par
Cumnock Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunbar United ↓

Cumnock Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Dunbar United or draw
55%
Dunbar United or Cumnock Juniors
79%
Draw or Cumnock Juniors
67%

Winning margin

Dunbar United wins by 2+
17%
Cumnock Juniors wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Dunbar United 1+ goals
82%
Dunbar United 2+ goals
52%
Dunbar United 3+ goals
25%
Cumnock Juniors 1+ goals
87%
Cumnock Juniors 2+ goals
60%
Cumnock Juniors 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Dunbar United (draw refunded)
43%
Cumnock Juniors (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunbar United at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Cumnock Juniors away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunbar United attack 1.78 + Cumnock Juniors defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Cumnock Juniors attack 2.17 + Dunbar United defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dunbar United scores more
33%
level
21%
Cumnock Juniors scores more
45%

Cumnock Juniors at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cumnock Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Dunbar United 2–4 Cumnock Juniors

Cumnock Juniors beat Dunbar United 4-2 in FA Cup on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at New Countess Park in Dunbar, East Lothian.