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Dunbar Rovers vs Rydalmere Lions — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Dunbar Rovers
Dunbar Rovers
FT
2 – 1
Rydalmere Lions
Rydalmere Lions
7/15/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 24Fraser Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dunbar Rovers35%
×Draw23%
Rydalmere Lions42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunbar Rovers
1.64
Rydalmere Lions
1.80

Rydalmere Lions creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 56 away

creates per match

Dunbar Rovers
1.30
Rydalmere Lions
1.57

allows per match

Dunbar Rovers
2.03
Rydalmere Lions
1.98

finishing

Dunbar Rovers+0.00on par
Rydalmere Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunbar Rovers ↓

Rydalmere Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Dunbar Rovers or draw
58%
Dunbar Rovers or Rydalmere Lions
77%
Draw or Rydalmere Lions
65%

Winning margin

Dunbar Rovers wins by 2+
17%
Rydalmere Lions wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Dunbar Rovers 1+ goals
81%
Dunbar Rovers 2+ goals
49%
Dunbar Rovers 3+ goals
23%
Rydalmere Lions 1+ goals
83%
Rydalmere Lions 2+ goals
54%
Rydalmere Lions 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Dunbar Rovers (draw refunded)
46%
Rydalmere Lions (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunbar Rovers at home — creates 1.30, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Rydalmere Lions away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.98 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunbar Rovers attack 1.30 + Rydalmere Lions defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.64

Rydalmere Lions attack 1.57 + Dunbar Rovers defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dunbar Rovers scores more
35%
level
23%
Rydalmere Lions scores more
42%

Rydalmere Lions at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rydalmere Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunbar Rovers vs Rydalmere Lions

Dunbar Rovers beat Rydalmere Lions 2-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Fraser Park in Marrickville.