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Dunbar Rovers vs Macarthur Rams — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Dunbar Rovers
Dunbar Rovers
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Macarthur Rams
Macarthur Rams
4/20/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 11Fraser Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dunbar Rovers40%
×Draw24%
Macarthur Rams36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunbar Rovers
1.58
Macarthur Rams
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 55 away

creates per match

Dunbar Rovers
1.30
Macarthur Rams
0.93

allows per match

Dunbar Rovers
2.03
Macarthur Rams
1.85

finishing

Dunbar Rovers+0.00on par
Macarthur Rams+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunbar Rovers ↓

Macarthur Rams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dunbar Rovers or draw
64%
Dunbar Rovers or Macarthur Rams
76%
Draw or Macarthur Rams
60%

Winning margin

Dunbar Rovers wins by 2+
20%
Macarthur Rams wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dunbar Rovers 1+ goals
79%
Dunbar Rovers 2+ goals
47%
Dunbar Rovers 3+ goals
21%
Macarthur Rams 1+ goals
77%
Macarthur Rams 2+ goals
43%
Macarthur Rams 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dunbar Rovers (draw refunded)
53%
Macarthur Rams (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunbar Rovers at home — creates 1.30, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Macarthur Rams away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.85 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunbar Rovers attack 1.30 + Macarthur Rams defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.58

Macarthur Rams attack 0.93 + Dunbar Rovers defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dunbar Rovers scores more
40%
level
24%
Macarthur Rams scores more
36%

Dunbar Rovers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dunbar Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Dunbar Rovers 0–0 Macarthur Rams

Dunbar Rovers and Macarthur Rams drew 0-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Fraser Park in Marrickville.