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Dunbar Rovers vs Bonnyrigg White Eagles — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Dunbar Rovers
Dunbar Rovers
FT
3 – 2
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
3/16/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 6Fraser Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dunbar Rovers38%
×Draw23%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunbar Rovers
1.64
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 62 away

creates per match

Dunbar Rovers
1.30
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.31

allows per match

Dunbar Rovers
2.03
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.98

finishing

Dunbar Rovers+0.00on par
Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunbar Rovers ↓

Bonnyrigg White Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dunbar Rovers or draw
61%
Dunbar Rovers or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
77%
Draw or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
62%

Winning margin

Dunbar Rovers wins by 2+
19%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dunbar Rovers 1+ goals
81%
Dunbar Rovers 2+ goals
49%
Dunbar Rovers 3+ goals
23%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals
81%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals
50%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Dunbar Rovers (draw refunded)
49%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunbar Rovers at home — creates 1.30, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.98 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunbar Rovers attack 1.30 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.64

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.31 + Dunbar Rovers defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dunbar Rovers scores more
38%
level
23%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more
39%

Bonnyrigg White Eagles at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bonnyrigg White Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Dunbar Rovers 3–2 Bonnyrigg White Eagles

Dunbar Rovers beat Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3-2 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Fraser Park in Marrickville.