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Dunav Stari Banovci vs Sloga Čonoplja — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Dunav Stari Banovci
Dunav Stari Banovci
FT
1 – 0
Sloga Čonoplja
Sloga Čonoplja
9/20/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 8Stadion Pod Bairom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dunav Stari Banovci42%
×Draw23%
Sloga Čonoplja34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.69
Sloga Čonoplja
1.50

Dunav Stari Banovci creates 13% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 49 away

creates per match

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.30
Sloga Čonoplja
1.04

allows per match

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.96
Sloga Čonoplja
2.08

finishing

Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par
Sloga Čonoplja+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Stari Banovci ↓

Sloga Čonoplja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dunav Stari Banovci or draw
66%
Dunav Stari Banovci or Sloga Čonoplja
77%
Draw or Sloga Čonoplja
58%

Winning margin

Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+
22%
Sloga Čonoplja wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals
82%
Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals
50%
Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals
24%
Sloga Čonoplja 1+ goals
78%
Sloga Čonoplja 2+ goals
44%
Sloga Čonoplja 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)
55%
Sloga Čonoplja (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Stari Banovci at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

Sloga Čonoplja away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 1.30 + Sloga Čonoplja defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sloga Čonoplja attack 1.04 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dunav Stari Banovci scores more
42%
level
23%
Sloga Čonoplja scores more
34%

Dunav Stari Banovci at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dunav Stari Banovci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Dunav Stari Banovci 1–0 Sloga Čonoplja

Dunav Stari Banovci beat Sloga Čonoplja 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Bairom in Stari Banovci.