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Dunav Stari Banovci vs Radnički Sombor — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Dunav Stari Banovci
Dunav Stari Banovci
FT
2 – 3
Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
5/15/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 34Stadion Pod Bairom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dunav Stari Banovci33%
×Draw24%
Radnički Sombor43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.39
Radnički Sombor
1.63

Radnički Sombor creates 17% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 49 away

creates per match

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.30
Radnički Sombor
1.29

allows per match

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.96
Radnički Sombor
1.47

finishing

Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par
Radnički Sombor+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Stari Banovci ↓

Radnički Sombor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dunav Stari Banovci or draw
57%
Dunav Stari Banovci or Radnički Sombor
76%
Draw or Radnički Sombor
67%

Winning margin

Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+
15%
Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals
75%
Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals
40%
Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals
16%
Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
80%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
48%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)
43%
Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Stari Banovci at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

Radnički Sombor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 1.30 + Radnički Sombor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Radnički Sombor attack 1.29 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dunav Stari Banovci scores more
33%
level
24%
Radnički Sombor scores more
43%

Radnički Sombor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Radnički Sombor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunav Stari Banovci vs Radnički Sombor

Radnički Sombor beat Dunav Stari Banovci 3-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Bairom in Stari Banovci.