Dunav Stari Banovci 1–6 Radnicki Pirot

Dunav Stari Banovci

FT

1 – 6

HT: 0 – 4

Radnicki Pirot

10/8/2022

Srpska Liga - East · East - 9Stadion FK Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dunav Stari Banovci35%

×Draw23%

Radnicki Pirot43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunav Stari BanovciExpected goals in this matchRadnicki Pirot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.78

Dunav Stari Banovci

1.59

Radnicki Pirot

1.78

Radnicki Pirot creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 74 away

1.75

creates per match

1.68

1.88

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Dunav Stari Banovci

1.75

Radnicki Pirot

1.68

allows per match

Dunav Stari Banovci

1.88

Radnicki Pirot

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Radnicki Pirot+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Stari Banovci ↓

Radnicki Pirot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Dunav Stari Banovci or draw

57%

Dunav Stari Banovci or Radnicki Pirot

77%

Draw or Radnicki Pirot

65%

Winning margin

Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+

17%

Radnicki Pirot wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals

80%

Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals

47%

Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals

21%

Radnicki Pirot 1+ goals

83%

Radnicki Pirot 2+ goals

53%

Radnicki Pirot 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)

45%

Radnicki Pirot (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Stari Banovci at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Radnicki Pirot away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.43 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 1.75 + Radnicki Pirot defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

Radnicki Pirot attack 1.68 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dunav Stari Banovci scores more

35%

level

23%

Radnicki Pirot scores more

43%

Radnicki Pirot at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Radnicki Pirot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff