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Dunav Stari Banovci vs Jagodina — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Dunav Stari Banovci
Dunav Stari Banovci
FT
0 – 3
Jagodina
Jagodina
9/10/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 5Stadion FK Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dunav Stari Banovci35%
×Draw23%
Jagodina42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.57
Jagodina
1.73

Jagodina creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 83 away

creates per match

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.75
Jagodina
1.59

allows per match

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.88
Jagodina
1.39

finishing

Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par
Jagodina+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Stari Banovci ↓

Jagodina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dunav Stari Banovci or draw
58%
Dunav Stari Banovci or Jagodina
77%
Draw or Jagodina
65%

Winning margin

Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+
17%
Jagodina wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals
79%
Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals
46%
Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals
21%
Jagodina 1+ goals
82%
Jagodina 2+ goals
52%
Jagodina 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)
46%
Jagodina (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Stari Banovci at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Jagodina away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.39 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 1.75 + Jagodina defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.57

Jagodina attack 1.59 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dunav Stari Banovci scores more
35%
level
23%
Jagodina scores more
42%

Jagodina at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jagodina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Dunav Stari Banovci 0–3 Jagodina

Jagodina beat Dunav Stari Banovci 3-0 in Srpska Liga - East on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Dunav in Prahovo.